FARTCOINUSDT – Probability Analysis for November 16, 2025

FARTCOINUSDT – Probability Analysis for November 16, 2025

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FARTCOIN/USDT — Probability Analysis (Nov 16, 2025)

Snapshot of live data

• Current price: approximately $0.249 USDT (as per latest TradingView quote). (TradingView)
• Technical sentiment (via TradingView for FARTCOIN/USDT perpetual) shows a consensus of “Neutral” on oscillators and moving averages. (TradingView)
• Additional context: On CoinMarketCap, FARTCOIN shows ~ $0.2477 USD with 24-h volume ~$44-46 million. (CoinMarketCap)

Daily (24-hour) probability scenarios

• Bullish (price rises > +3%): 30%
• Neutral (price moves within ±3%): 50%
• Bearish (price falls > -3%): 20%

Rationale (daily):

• Price is near current consolidation around ~$0.249, with limited immediate directional momentum.
• Technicals remain neutral, reducing chance of strong breakout in the next 24 hours.
• Volume moderate and no new major catalyst visible right now → tilt slightly toward a rangebound outcome (neutral).
• Bear risk is somewhat lower given current support, hence bearish bucket is the smallest.

Weekly (7-day) probability scenarios

• Bullish (gain > +10%): 35%
• Neutral (rangebound within ±10%): 45%
• Bearish (drop > -10%): 20%

Rationale (weekly):

• Over a week there is more time for catalysts (community/social momentum, listings) to play out, hence meaningful bullish potential.
• But since technicals are still neutral and no breakout yet, the largest probability remains neutral.
• Bearish risk is somewhat reduced here given recent consolidation, but still present.

Monthly (30-day) probability scenarios

• Bullish (gain ≥ +25%): 40%
• Neutral (rangebound within ±25%): 35%
• Bearish (drop > -25%): 25%

Rationale (monthly):

• With 30 days of runway, large moves are entirely plausible for high-volatility assets like FARTCOIN.
• The bullish scenario remains the highest because the token’s structure, liquidity and meme/viral potential allow big upside.
• Neutral still credible, but the possibility of a sharp drop remains meaningful (25% for bearish) given the risk profile.

Key levels to watch

• Support: around $0.24-$0.245 USDT (recent reaction zone)
• Resistance: around $0.29-$0.30 USDT (near prior highs)
• A decisive close above ~$0.30 with strong volume would raise the bullish probability materially.
• A fall below ~$0.24 with heavy selling flow would push the bearish scenario toward dominance.

Methodology – how these probabilities were derived

1. Gather live input: current price (~$0.249 USDT), 24-hour volume (~$44–46 m), available technical sentiment (Neutral).
2. Check the technical summary: TradingView shows “Neutral”.
3. Define scenario thresholds: daily ±3%, weekly ±10%, monthly ±25% (you can adjust if you prefer tighter/wider bands).
4. Use historical context: meme coins tend to have higher volatility, hence naturally elevated tail risks.
5. Weight probabilities by: (a) relative price position (near mid-range = more neutral), (b) volume/market liquidity, (c) technical sentiment.
6. Lay out the buckets transparently so that you (or your readers) can re‐run the model with updated live inputs in future.

Risk & trade-management notes

• This token falls into a high-volatility, high-risk category: position sizing and risk control are crucial.
• Futures/perpetual markets (if used) increase chance of rapid moves or liquidation.
• Use clear risk limits, and avoid large leverage unless you fully understand the risks.
• Re-compute your probabilities if a major event occurs (e.g., exchange listing, major influencer mention, regulatory news) since the input conditions will change.

Disclaimer

This content is provided for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. You should not interpret this analysis as a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset. Always conduct your own research, assess your individual risk tolerance, and if needed consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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