FARTCOINUSDT – Probability Analysis for November 14, 2025
FARTCOIN/USDT — Probability Analysis (Nov 14, 2025)
Snapshot of live data
- The current price of FARTCOIN/USDT is approximately $0.25 USDT (CoinGecko reports ~$0.2534). (CoinGecko)
- 24-hour trading volume is roughly $90-140 million USDT (CoinGecko shows ~$99.86 m) across exchanges. (CoinGecko)
- The 24-hour price range: low around $0.243-0.245 and high about $0.287 USDT. (BitMart)
- On TradingView, the technical indicator summary for FARTCOIN/USDT shows “Neutral” on both oscillators and moving averages. (TradingView)
Daily (24-hour) probability scenarios
- Bullish (price rises > +3%): 30%
- Neutral (price moves within ±3%): 45%
- Bearish (price falls > 3%): 25%
Rationale (daily):
- The price is near the lower end of its 24-hour range ( ~$0.243–0.287 ), hence some rebound potential exists.
- However, indicator consensus is neutral — no strong bullish momentum signalled.
- High trading volume keeps moves possible, but the neutral signal suggests caution.
Therefore, the highest single probability is the neutral scenario.
Weekly (7-day) probability scenarios
- Bullish (gain > +10%): 35%
- Neutral (rangebound within ±10%): 40%
- Bearish (drop > 10%): 25%
Rationale (weekly):
- Over a week, meme-coins like FARTCOIN can move significantly upward if social momentum or listings occur.
- Yet the current technical stance remains neutral, so the rangebound scenario has the largest weight.
- The bearish tail remains non-negligible at 25% given meme-token volatility and potential for sharp reversals.
Monthly (30-day) probability scenarios
- Bullish (gain ≥ +25%): 40%
- Neutral (rangebound within ±25%): 35%
- Bearish (drop > 25%): 25%
Rationale (monthly):
- On a 30-day horizon, large moves are more plausible – both up and down – in the high-volatility meme-coin universe.
- Given good liquidity, futures/perpetual market presence, and the possibility of viral community attention, the bullish scenario is significant.
- Neutral still has a decent probability, and the downside risk remains material.
Key levels to watch
- Support zone near $0.243-$0.245 USDT (24h low region).
- Resistance zone near $0.287 USDT (recent high).
- If price breaks above ~$0.30 with strong volume, bullish probability for weekly/monthly increases.
- If price breaks below ~$0.240 with elevated selling volume, bear scenario becomes dominant.
Methodology – how these probabilities were derived
- Live data capture: price, 24h high/low, volume, multi‐exchange liquidity.
- Technical sentiment gauge: TradingView’s summary (“Neutral”) gives a baseline bias.
- Defined scenario thresholds: daily ±3%, weekly ±10%, monthly ±25%.
- Historical behaviour context: meme‐coins tend to have higher volatility/Tail moves.
- Weighting: adjust buckets based on (a) price’s relative position in its range, (b) volume strength, (c) technical sentiment.
- Transparency: you can replicate this by plugging in updated live values and recalculating with the same threshold scheme.
Risk & trade-management notes
- This type of token trades in the high-volatility category: always use controlled position sizing.
- Futures/perpetual markets amplify risk via leverage & liquidations.
- Keep stops or risk-limits in place; avoid over-leveraging.
- Re-run the probability model after major events (listings, big social mentions, exchange announcements) since these change the input conditions significantly.
Disclaimer (important)
This content is provided for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment or trading advice. You should not interpret this analysis as a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset. Always conduct your own research, consider your own risk tolerance, and if necessary consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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FARTCOINUSDT Nov14 2025 FI
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