FARTCOINUSDT – Probability Analysis for November 12, 2025
FARTCOIN/USDT — Probability Analysis (November 12, 2025)
Live snapshot
- CoinMarketCap live price and 24-hour volume: FARTCOIN ≈ $0.277–$0.30 USD, 24h volume on the order of tens of millions USD (CoinMarketCap live feed). (CoinMarketCap)
- Bitget spot ticks show cross-exchange prices near $0.30 USDT and confirm liquidity (24h high/low visible on Bitget). (Bitget)
- TradingView charts & multi-TF technicals: short timeframes show mixed → neutral signals with intraday rejection points around recent highs. (TradingView)
- CoinGecko historical context and recent market commentary were used to cross-check price history and volume context. (CoinGecko)
Quick market context: FARTCOIN remains a high-volume meme/sentiment token with large intraday ranges. Elevated 24h volume increases the chance of fast squeezes or rapid distribution—so watch volume confirmation closely when interpreting moves. (CoinMarketCap)
How this probability model works (short)
I compute a reproducible bullishness score S per timeframe from five components and fixed weights:
Weights
- Price action (candles/structure): 30%
- Volume confirmation (are moves volume-backed): 25%
- Multi-TF technicals (TradingView composite / MA alignment): 20%
- Liquidity / order-book breadth (cross-exchange): 10%
- Macro/sentiment (BTC direction, social flow, news): 15%
Each component is scored between 0.00 and 1.00 (0 = strongly bearish, 1 = strongly bullish). S = 0.30·P + 0.25·V + 0.20·T + 0.10·L + 0.15·M. S×100 → base bullish %; I then translate that into practical Bullish / Neutral / Bearish probability bands, applying conservative judgement for meme-token non-linear moves.
I show the component scores and the full digit-by-digit arithmetic below.
DAILY (next 24–72 hours)
What the charts show right now
- Price band: around $0.28–$0.30 across major pages; intraday candles show quick wicks and rejections near $0.32–$0.35. Volume is elevated for this token’s size. (CoinMarketCap)
Key immediate levels (reference use)
- Support: $0.24 – $0.26 (recent intraday lows / visible buy walls). (Bitget)
- Resistance: $0.30 – $0.33 (recent intraday caps).
- Bias flip (short term): >$0.38 with convincing expanding daily volume.
Component scores I used (daily; my live judgments)
- Price action P = 0.14 (recent daily closes show rejections and lower wicks)
- Volume V = 0.28 (24h volume large but biased to down days recently). (CoinMarketCap)
- Technicals T = 0.13 (TradingView multi-TF composite leans neutral/sell on many short TFs). (TradingView)
- Liquidity L = 0.50 (Bitget + other venues show decent orderbook depth). (Bitget)
- Macro / sentiment M = 0.30 (social chatter high; macro risk neutral)
Daily arithmetic (digit-by-digit)
- PriceAction contribution = 0.14 × 0.30 = 0.0420
- Volume contribution = 0.28 × 0.25 = 0.0700
- Technicals contribution = 0.13 × 0.20 = 0.0260
- Liquidity contribution = 0.50 × 0.10 = 0.0500
- Macro contribution = 0.30 × 0.15 = 0.0450
S_daily = 0.0420 + 0.0700 + 0.0260 + 0.0500 + 0.0450 = 0.2330 → base bullish ≈ 23.3%
Translated daily probabilities (rounded + judgement)
- Bullish (fast squeeze/bounce to $0.33–$0.38 if volume expands): ~25%.
- Neutral / consolidation (range $0.24–$0.33): ~55% (base case).
- Bearish (break below $0.22 → $0.18 on rising sell volume): ~20%.
Interpretation: objective S_daily is mildly bearish; I modestly upweight the short-squeeze chance (to ~25%) because high liquidity + meme dynamics can produce rapid bounces on heavy inflows. Confirm with cross-exchange volume spikes. (Bitget)
WEEKLY (1–3 weeks)
What the weekly frame shows
- Weekly candles show a pullback from October activity and a flattening of weekly MAs. Weekly volume remains elevated; the weekly composite reads neutral to slightly bearish until a clear weekly close confirms direction. (CoinMarketCap)
Component scores (weekly)
- P = 0.18
- V = 0.32
- T = 0.16
- L = 0.52
- M = 0.32
Weekly arithmetic (digit-by-digit)
- 0.18 × 0.30 = 0.0540
- 0.32 × 0.25 = 0.0800
- 0.16 × 0.20 = 0.0320
- 0.52 × 0.10 = 0.0520
- 0.32 × 0.15 = 0.0480
S_week = 0.0540 + 0.0800 + 0.0320 + 0.0520 + 0.0480 = 0.2660 → base bullish ≈ 26.6%
Translated weekly probabilities
- Range/base formation between ~$0.18–$0.33 (base case): ~50%.
- Bearish continuation (support break to ~$0.10–$0.18): ~30%.
- Bullish weekly flip (weekly close > $0.38 with rising weekly volume): ~20%.
Interpretation: weekly S_week is slightly more constructive than daily but not strong enough to prefer a multi-week rally without clear accumulation and weekly volume expansion. Use weekly closes for swing confirmation. (CoinMarketCap)
MONTHLY (1+ months)
What the monthly frame shows
- Monthly history places current price far below the January 2025 ATH; recent months show high absolute volume with large swings. A durable medium-term bullish flip needs sustained cross-exchange accumulation and multiple weekly closes above mid resistance. CoinGecko / CoinMarketCap historical tables provide supportive context. (CoinGecko)
Component scores (monthly)
- P = 0.25
- V = 0.36
- T = 0.20
- L = 0.55
- M = 0.35
Monthly arithmetic (digit-by-digit)
- 0.25 × 0.30 = 0.0750
- 0.36 × 0.25 = 0.0900
- 0.20 × 0.20 = 0.0400
- 0.55 × 0.10 = 0.0550
- 0.35 × 0.15 = 0.0525
S_month = 0.0750 + 0.0900 + 0.0400 + 0.0550 + 0.0525 = 0.3125 → base bullish ≈ 31.25%
Translated monthly probabilities
- Neutral / mildly bearish (range & consolidation): ~50%.
- Constructive recovery toward $0.50+ if sustained accumulation occurs: ~30%.
- Deep correction (< $0.08): ~20%.
Interpretation: monthly S_month gives a modest objective bullish backbone; real medium-term outcomes depend heavily on macro liquidity and whether social/wallet flows & accumulation persist. (CoinGecko)
Practical confirmation rules (objective)
- Intraday long (conservative): wait for two consecutive 15-minute closes above $0.33 with 15-minute volume > recent 15-minute average; then wait for a retest to $0.30 acting as support before scaling in.
- Swing long (1–21 days): requires a weekly close > $0.38 with rising weekly volume and MA alignment (20W > 50W).
- Monthly trend flip: multiple weekly closes above $0.45–$0.50 with increasing cross-exchange accumulative volume.
Risk management notes
- Meme/token rule: keep position sizes small (1–3% of portfolio per active trade) due to fast moves and social volatility.
- Stops: place stops under the retest low for confirmed entries, or under the nearest structural support for unconfirmed trades.
- Cross-check price & orderbook depth on Bitget and TradingView markets to avoid exchange-specific anomalies. (Bitget)
Sources / live references (most important)
FARTCOINUSDT Nov 12 2025 FI
- CoinMarketCap — live FARTCOIN price, market cap, 24h volume, and historical table. (CoinMarketCap)
- Bitget — FARTCOIN/USDT spot ticks, 24h high/low, and price depth. (Bitget)
- TradingView — FARTCOIN/USDT chart, markets list, and multi-TF composites. (TradingView)
- CoinGecko — price history and market context. (CoinGecko)
- Additional market notes (AI summary pages/market commentary) are used to cross-check sentiment. (CoinMarketCap)
Disclaimer
This post is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial, legal, tax or investment advice, and should not be taken as a trading signal. Cryptocurrency markets are volatile and risky. Always confirm live prices on your exchange of choice and perform your own research (DYOR) or consult a licensed professional before making financial decisions.
