FARTCOINUSDT – Probability Analysis for November 15, 2025
FARTCOIN/USDT — Probability Analysis (Nov 15, 2025)
Snapshot of live data
- Current price: approximately $0.245 USDT (according to multiple sources). (TradingView)
- 24-hour range: low ~ $0.2418 USDT, high ~ $0.2858 USDT on one futures listing. (Binance)
- 24-hour trading volume: over $70 million USDT or more across exchanges. (CoinGecko)
- Technical sentiment (via TradingView for FARTCOIN/USDT) shows a summary of “Neutral” in both oscillators and moving averages. (TradingView)
Daily (24-hour) probability scenarios
- Bullish (price up > +3%): 30%
- Neutral (rangebound ±3%): 45%
- Bearish (price down > -3%): 25%
Rationale (daily):
- With the current price near the lower end of the 24-hour range (~$0.2418 to $0.2858), there is some potential for an upside rebound.
- But the indicator summary is neutral, meaning no strong directional bias.
- A large volume supports the possibility of a move but does not guarantee the trend direction.
Hence, the largest single bucket is “neutral/rangebound.”
Weekly (7-day) probability scenarios
- Bullish (gain > +10%): 35%
- Neutral (rangebound within ±10%): 40%
- Bearish (drop > -10%): 25%
Rationale (weekly):
- Over a week, meme-coins like FARTCOIN are capable of sizable moves (up or down) if viral momentum or exchange listings occur.
- The current technical stance remains neutral, so the neutral bucket remains the largest.
- Bear risk is non-trivial given the volatility typical of such assets.
Monthly (30-day) probability scenarios
- Bullish (gain ≥ +25%): 40%
- Neutral (rangebound within ±25%): 35%
- Bearish (drop > -25%): 25%
Rationale (monthly):
- On a 30-day horizon, large directional moves are much more plausible given liquidity, futures availability and community/trend-driven catalysts.
- The bullish bucket is highest here, but neutral and bearish remain meaningful.
Key levels to watch
- Support: ~ $0.240-$0.243 USDT (near recent low)
- Resistance: ~ $0.285-$0.290 USDT
- A decisive close above ~$0.30 USDT with high volume would significantly increase the bullish weekly/monthly probability.
- Conversely, a break below ~$0.240 USDT with heavy selling would push the bearish scenario into dominance.
Methodology – how these probabilities were derived
- Captured live data: current price, 24h high/low, volume, multiple exchange listings.
- Assessed technical sentiment: TradingView consensus (“Neutral”).
- Set scenario thresholds: daily ±3%, weekly ±10%, monthly ±25% (modifiable basis).
- Contextualized with asset type: meme-coin, high volatility, futures/perpetual markets present → higher tail risk.
- Weighted probabilities by: (a) price position relative to range, (b) volume/momentum strength, (c) technical sentiment baseline.
- Provided transparency: you can duplicate by plugging in updated live inputs and applying same framework.
Risk & trade-management notes
- This asset trades in the high-volatility category: use strict risk management and small position size.
- Futures/perpetual markets increase liquidation and leverage risk.
- Always have defined stop or risk limit.
- Re-run the probability model after major events (listings, large social momentum shifts, exchange announcements).
Disclaimer
This content is provided for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment or trading advice. You should not interpret this analysis as a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset. Always conduct your own research, assess your personal risk tolerance, and consult a licensed financial advisor if needed before making any investment decisions.
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